The Devastating Results If Minnesota Suffered A Nuclear Attack

Chances are you've heard of the Cold War and likely lived through it making headlines through the years. Growing up through the 80's I remember fearing nuclear because tension with the Soviet Union dominated pop culture.

Movies like 'War Games' and 'Red Dawn' come to mind. Heck, even 'Rocky IV' had Rocky fighting Ivan Drago from the Soviet Union. The Cold War has also been brought up many times in music and TV.

History tells us that it was at the Malta summit in December 1989, that Gorbachev and US President George H.W. Bush declared the end of the Cold War. However, it appears that tensions are rising once again.

Global Tensions Are Reportedly Escalating

According to an article in Newsweek, global tensions have escalated due to threats of nuclear war from Russia's President, Vladimir Putin. Earlier this year, Putin lowered the threshold of nuclear weapon use by saying Russia would "consider the possibility of using nuclear weapons when receiving reliable information about a massive launch of means of aerospace attack and their crossing of our state border."

He added that "Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in case of aggression, including if the enemy using conventional weapons poses a critical threat."

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Needless to say, it would be devastating for the United States and the world if Russia and the U.S. were involved in a nuclear war, but what would happen if Minnesota was targeted in a nuclear attack?

Predicting The Impact Of A Nuclear Attack In Minnesota

Alex Wellerstein, a professor and historian of nuclear technology, has created an interactive map showing the results of a nuclear attack on any city, based on several variables, including the size of the weapon used.

For the sake of this exercise, let's assume Russia attacks the U.S. using its R-36M2 missile (also known as the SS-18 Satan). It's one of the largest and most powerful heavy intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) ever built. It can yield the equivalent of 20 megatons (20,000 kilotons) of TNT explosives and has a range of up to 10,000 miles.

Another important factor is which Minnesota city is struck by the nuclear weapon. While recent FEMA reports have listed smaller cities like Duluth and St. Cloud as potential targets due to National Guard units being stationed there, we will go with another likely target, the Twin Cities metro area.

The Twin Cities is not only highly populated, but it also contains the state capitol where state leadership is positioned.

Damage Report From A Nuclear Attack On The Twin Cities

Using Minneapolis as the point of impact from an R-36M2 missile launched from Moscow, the results would be horrifying.

There would be an estimated 1,127,490 fatalities, with an additional 873,110 injuries and those estimates are just from the impact zone.

Now, let's take a look at what happens in each level of the impact zone below.

Fireball Radius: 3.52 km (39 km²) - Point of impact. Shown in Dark Gold 
Maximum size of the nuclear fireball; relevance to damage on the ground depends on the height of detonation. If it touches the ground, the amount of radioactive fallout is significantly increased. Anything inside the fireball is effectively vaporized. Minimum burst height for negligible fallout: 2.88 km.

Heavy Blast Damage Radius (20 psi): 7.08 km (158 km²) - Shown in Red
At 20 psi overpressure, heavily built concrete buildings are severely damaged or demolished; fatalities approach 100%. Often used as a benchmark for heavy damage in cities. The optimal height of the burst to maximize this effect is 4,940 m.

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Moderate Blast Damage Radius (5 psi): 16.2 km (828 km²) - Shown in Gray
At 5 psi overpressure, most residential buildings collapse, injuries are universal, and fatalities are widespread. The chances of a fire starting in commercial and residential damage are high, and buildings so damaged are at high risk of spreading fire. Often used as a benchmark for moderate damage in cities. The optimal height of the burst to maximize this effect is 8,480 m.

Light Blast Damage Radius (1 psi): 42.9 km (5,790 km²) - Shown in Light Gray
At around 1 psi overpressure, glass windows can be expected to break. This can cause many injuries in a surrounding population who comes to a window after seeing the flash of a nuclear explosion (which travels faster than the pressure wave). Often used as a benchmark for light damage in cities. The optimal height of the burst to maximize this effect is 12,680 m.

Thermal Radiation (3rd-degree burns): 44.8 km (6,300 km²) - Gold Outer Edge
Third-degree burns extend throughout the layers of skin and are often painless because they destroy the pain nerves. They can cause severe scarring or disablement and can require amputation. The 100% probability for 3rd degree burns at this yield is 13.2 cal/cm².

As devasting as this is, it only gets worse when you take into account that this model doesn't factor in the nuclear fallout that could travel hundreds of miles throughout the state. Let's all hope this never even comes close to happening.

You can click the button above to use the interactive Nuke Map. It allows you to choose the city that is targeted, the size of the weapon used, and other variables.