How Much Would We Have Gotten If This December Rain Fell As Snow?

The odds of a white Christmas are dwindling as the forecast continues to call for generally warmer-than-normal temperatures across the region.

While this weekend's messy storm system is bringing some small amounts of sloppy snow to parts of the region, warmer weather in the week ahead doesn't bode well for preserving that limited snow amount or allowing for much to be added to the totals we've seen.

As far as the National Weather Service is concerned, they define a "white Christmas" as having at least an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day. While it wouldn't take much to achieve that, the odds aren't looking great in many places of the Northland, including Duluth and Superior.

But, what if?

Almost exactly a year ago, we got hit by a snowstorm. A year later, another December weather event mixed with warmer temperatures brought rain to the Northland, making it feel more like that scene in Home Alone, where the family is in Miami and it's raining. Not very Christmas-like; especially in a part of the world where precip in December is usually snow.

During this weekend's weather event, some areas got a pretty decent amount of rain. Many places got nearly an inch of rain, with some places reporting more than an inch. Not flood-worthy rain, but a notable amount of precip.

If temperatures had been a little bit cooler, how much snow would we have gotten?

While the conversion rate of rain to snow varies depending on factors like how cold it is, there is a standard conversion rate generally used to convert liquid precipitation to snow.

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Here's a rundown of some rain reports from around the region as of Saturday afternoon, and roughly how much snow we would have gotten if it had been cold enough to see snow instead of rain:

Mason, WI: 11.5 inches of snow
Two Harbors, MN; 10.8 inches of snow
Bayfield, WI: 10.3 inches of snow
Superior, WI: 10.2 inches of snow
Solon Springs, WI: 10.2 inches of snow
Aitkin, MN: 9.9 inches of snow
Woodland - Duluth, MN: 9.6 inches of snow
Sandstone, MN: 9.6 inches of snow
Silver Bay, MN: 9.4 inches of snow
Chester Park - Duluth, MN: 9.1 inches of snow
Cloquet, MN: 8.8 inches of snow
Brainerd, MN: 8.8 inches of snow
Moose Lake, MN: 8.3 inches of snow
Grand Rapids, MN: 6.3 inches of snow
Hibbing, MN: 4.2 inches of snow
Hayward, WI: 3.3 inches of snow

That would have made for a much more seasonal look to things a week before Christmas.

The 15 Least Snowy Winters On Record In Duluth History

Since the National Weather Service began keeping weather records in Duluth in the late 1800s, here are the 15 winters with the lowest snowfall totals on historical record.

It is worth noting that the official records from 1941-today have been recorded at the area now known as the Duluth International Airport (away from the lake, on top of the hill). Before then, various locations closer to Lake Superior had been used for official weather recording data. For anyone that knows anything about how Lake Superior and the hill play a role in temperature and snow, you can see how this makes older records inherently different.

While these records note the "least snowy winters", they actually include all seasonal snowfall from July 1 through June 30 of the following year.

Gallery Credit: Nick Cooper - TSM Duluth

Source: What If? How Much Snow Would We Have Gotten If This December Rain Fell As Snow?