Minnesota’s November Forecast Predicts Warmth Before Winter Hits

November weather in Minnesota can be all over the place. One day we're enjoying a nice fall day, the next we’re digging out the winter gear on Thanksgiving.

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It’s the time of year when we start checking the extended forecast a little more often to find out when the first real snow is coming and how long we have until everything freezes.

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The latest 30-day outlook from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center has been released, and it might be good news for those who hope winter stays away as long as possible. Check out the outlook maps below to see what kind of November is in store for the North Star State this year.

What “Equal Chances” and “Leaning Above” Mean

NOAA says their maps divide the next month into three possible categories: above, below, or near normal, based on 30 years of historical data. When a region is labeled “Above”, forecasters believe that outcome has a greater than 33% chance of occurring. “Equal Chances” means there’s no strong signal favoring any one outcome, so the weather can go either way.

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Minnesota November Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA’s monthly temperature outlook, most of Minnesota falls in the 'likely above-average' range through November. For reference, the average temperature in Minnesota in November is a high of 34°F to 44°F and a low of 17°F to 29°F.

So that doesn't mean we'll necessarily have temps in the 60s all month, but chances are good we'll have a warmer-than-normal month overall, potentially keeping those fall-like conditions around a little longer than usual.

NOAA November 2026 Temperature Outlook (tap to enlarge)

Minnesota Precipitation Outlook:

When it comes to precipitation, NOAA puts all of Minnesota in the “equal chances” range, meaning there’s no clear tilt toward wetter-or-drier-than-normal conditions.

If the forecast holds, expect more mild jacket days than heavy parka ones early in the month and maybe a slower transition to our true Minnesota winter everyone loves so much, which, by the way, is also predicted to be a little warmer than average this year! 😉

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